Who Can Win 2020 Election Of U.S.A

I understand that 2020 is a couple years away, but with a Trump presidency, it seems we’re all eager to think about the future when Trump is not president.

Inherent Problems Within the Democrats

So first, we have to look at the 2016 election, and the major failures of the Democratic Party. The Democrats really messed up, let’s not confuse ourselves here. They neglected their base, underestimated Donald Trump’s message as well as his ability to connect with the disenfranchised blue-collar white voters. The 2016 election was a humiliating defeat for Democrats. They lost the House, the Senate (which they were expected to pick up), and the Presidency. There’s a lot to accomplish before we even think about 2020.

First, Democrats need to build from the bottom up. Focus on local elections, grassroots organization, and rebuilding its connection to the lower and middle class, the people who feel they’ve been let down by the party. Next, they need to get rid of the establishment and stop interfering with primaries. Clinton lost over a million votes to Jill Stein, which could have been hers if the party hadn’t ignored the cries of its base brought out by Bernie Sanders. Finally, the Democrats need to invest in candidates for the long term. The party needs to seek out those who will work well in local government and build them up so they can be prepared to run for the House, or the Senate, and inspire Democrats and Republicans to vote for them. All of this should happen between now and 2018.

Now, assuming the Democrats rebounded from this, and had a successful recovery in 2017, 2018, and 2019 in both the local and national level, let’s go over potential candidates.

Most Likely Candidates for the Democrats

Elizabeth Warren- Warren, the Senior Senator from Massachusetts, will probably piggy-back off of Bernie’s success. She has similar ideals, connects very well with the Sander’s base, and is a woman (this is not meant to be sexist or anything, if the Democrats can nominate a successful woman, then I will be extremely happy). The problem is, she would be 70 when she ran, and if elected, she would turn 71, which is fairly old. She is also somewhat part of the establishment in a time when it is not good to be part of the establishment, although most of the people on this list will also be establishment. She will also see problems because the other people on this list have the same ideology she does, and that doesn’t set her very far apart.

Corey Booker- Booker is the Junior Senator from New Jersey, former Mayor of Newark, and an overall very charismatic and passionate individual. He was considered as a potential VP for Clinton, and even though he lost that, he was a very strong supporter of hers. Booker is left on certain policies, but more in the center for others making him a very interesting candidate. Booker is also African-American, which is an added benefit to get that demographic to go out and vote. That being said, can he capture the Bernie vote? Booker is young (compared to the others) and very intelligent, and he may capture the millennial vote….maybe. That being said, Booker also has several problems of his own. The senator has a lot of connections to wall street which can be disheartening to many. I do think Booker’s run isn’t a matter of if, but when. He may decide to wait until 2024, but my bets are on a 2020 run, especially if he becomes a leader among Democrats during Trumps Presidency.

Kirsten Gillibrand- Gillibrand is the Junior Senator from New York, who replaced Hillary Clinton. There’s always been some mention of her running for office. She’s once again on the younger side, has more liberal policies, and can inspire the women vote. There don’t seem to be any problems with Gillibrand other than the fact that 2020 will probably be a crowded field. Can she shine in such a large field, or should she wait a little longer.

Somewhat Likely Candidates for the Democrats

Tim Kaine- Kaine has a long history of public service: Mayer of Richmond, Lt. Governor of Virginia, and senator of Virginia (reelection in 2018). He was, of course, the Vice-Presidential candidate for the Democratic party, and it’s unfortunate that ticket lost. Yes, I am a Tim Kaine fanboy. I think he would make a great president; he would be able to reach across party lines and work on centrist legislation. Kaine is also fluent in Spanish, which is always a plus with the Latino vote. Unfortunately, Kaine’s strong suit is not charisma, and he is seen as one of the “party insiders”, having been the DNC chair from 2009–2011. I would rate Tim Kaine as a maybe because while he now has some name recognition, he would be associated with a failed ticket from the “Clinton era” in a time where the Democrats need to move away into the progressive and populist era.

Julian/Joaquin Castro- Most people probably don’t know Julian Castro, because he has very little name recognition and limited experience. Julian Castro was Mayor of San Antonio, Texas as well as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama. Julian Castro also has a brother in the House of Representatives, Joaquin Castro. Both are Latino, speak fluent Spanish, and come from Texas. The reason they could be considered is mostly because they’re fairly popular Latino members of the Democratic Party. However, I don’t see a Castro run as very likely in 2020, in a time when the Democrats have to ooze enthusiasm and passion, and really solidify their positions with their own voters. But who knows, in 2024 or 2028, as Texas moves from red to purple, they could be the perfect candidates to tip the state in the favor of Democrats, along with Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.

Kamal Harris- Harris was the former Attorney General of California, and the now the Junio Senator from California. Harris is African-American, Indian-American, and Asian American. Harris is charismatic, popular in her home state, and has a very diverse background. The reason I classified her as a maybe is because of her lack of experience in Federal Government. That being said, if Donald Trump can be elected, than I see no reason for her not to run. She would make an excellent candidate.

Tammy Duckworth- Duckworth was the former Director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs, a member of the House of Representatives, and the new elected Senator from Illinois as well as being the first Asian-American woman to be elected to Congress and the Senate. That’s quite a list of achievements. She is also being considered for a run in 2020, but like harris, does she have the experience needed to run the country?

Most Likely Will not Run in 2020

Marin O’Malley- Martin O’Malley ran for President in the Democratic Primary, but dropped out early on due to not getting enough traction in his campaign. He also severely lacks the charisma that will be needed for Democrats to win the presidency.

Bernie Sanders- Bernie Sanders, everyone’s favorite grandpa, received a huge amount of enthusiasm from his base in the 2016 election. So much so, that several people refused to vote for his primary candidate, Hillary Clinton in the general election, which cost her hundreds of thousands of votes. But, Sanders began a revolution in his party, and he was thought to have been able to outperform Hillary in the election. I don’t know how true that is, but his message struck a strong chord with the blue-collar disenfranchised voters. Will he run again, though? Well, probably not. Bernie would be 79 years old in 2020, and running a campaign with a much more open and like-minded field will be a lot more difficult than running against the more moderate Hillary Clinton.

Joe Biden- Joe Biden, soon to be former Vice-President, missed his chance at a presidency. He would be 77 years old if he were to run in 2020, making him most likely too old to run. Biden would also struggle in a field of younger more charismatic voters.

Will Not Run, but It’s Fun to Think About

Michelle Obama- Michelle, the classy, intelligent, and charismatic woman who stole our hearts in basically every speech she’s ever made. But, it’s been said multiple times that she is not interested in running for office. She has little to no experience, but again, we just elected Donald Trump, so that qualification does not seem to matter anymore. It sure would be fun to have a combination of the first African-American woman president. Maybe in the future, America. But for now, we’re stuck with the worst white guy America was able think up.

Hillary Clinton- Clinton experienced one the most crushing defeats I have ever witnessed, and will definitely go down as a humiliating defeat in history. She failed to connect with the white blue-collar voters, as well as encourage African-American turnout. Of course, it’s been joked about that Hillary will never stop running, but I think that ends here. If she were to run, she would most likely lose in the primaries. That being said, it would be interesting to have another Dwight D. Eisenhower vs Adlai Stevenson scenario (they ran against each other in 1952 and again in 1956, but Eisenhower won both times) with Hillary Clinton with Donald Trump. As I write this, I know most Democrats cringe as I say Clinton vs Trump part two, but if Trump is truly a disaster, and Clinton has the stamina and will, she could try.

Inherent Problems Within the Republicans

Republicans were the biggest winners of 2016, but they were also the biggest losers. The GOP is an extremely divided party, and doesn’t really know what it stands for. There are moderates in the party like Kasich and Bush, there are Federalists like Ted Cruz and Mike Pence, and there are the in-betweens like Paul Ryan. However, after Trump’s historic victory, anti-establishment might become a dominant wing in the party. That being said, the GOP has control of local and federal governments, and are at the peak of their power. What they do with that power, only time will tell. I do see several possibilities for where the party could go for 2020.

Trump is Somewhat Successful and Wants to Run Again.

Nothing to really say here, Trump will run, and we’ll see if he can once again capture the blue-collar vote that brought him to victory.

Trump is Not Successful but Wants to Run Again.

In this case, I can conceivably see the party abandoning Trump if his first term is a disaster. So, the primaries may look like a Trump vs Ted Cruz or John Kasich or Mike Pence (if he decides he can be victorious), or Marco Rubio standoff. We’ll just have to wait and see for that one.

Trump Does Not Run Again

On the list of those is probably: Mike Pence, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Niki Haley, Susana Martinez, Paul Ryan, etc…

There are a lot more potential Republicans that have a fairly good chance of trying to beat Trump.